[COLUMN] Meaning of pattern change in President Moon's N. Korea policy

By Kim Sang-soon Posted : July 31, 2017, 15:27 Updated : August 1, 2017, 16:42

[Yonhap Photo]


(This column was contributed by Kim Sang-soon, the President of East Asia Peace Research Association and an expert in international relations.)

As expected, North Korea, which had been silent on our government proposal on for military talks and Red Cross talks on the reunion of separated families launched the second test launch of its Hwasong-14 ballistic missile on July 28.

It's meant to induce a confrontation between China and Russia on one side and an alliance of South Korea, the US, Japan on the other side and also to spur cooperation involving North Korea, China and Russia. North Korea is presumed to have picked a day between the so-called "Day of Victory" (July 27th) and a Chinese military parade.

North Korea appeared to have found a good chance to take advantage of US sanctions against Russia and China's first military parade, and as intended, Sino-South Korean relations were strained further and relations between the US, China and Russia get soured.

◆ The turning point for North Korea policy must be implemented into actual action.

Unlike the previous government, President Moon Jae-in ordered a strong show of power at the National Security Council (NSC) plenary session that came one hour and 19 minutes after North Korea's ballistic missile launch.

Such measures have three important implications. First, they pursue the "practical" deterrence of a future US-Korean alliance. Second, they are pursuing the independent deterrence of South Korean troops. Third, the Moon government showed conservative groups at home and in the United States its willingness to deter North Korea.

In particular, I believe that the third one will play an important role at home and abroad in dealing with North Korea and the United States. Is it too much for me to think this measure could lead to a new turning point for South Korea's policy toward North Korea from July 29?

◆ The meaning of President Moon's swift military action and policy change

I interpret this in four meanings. First, it has raised the 'external bargaining power' for North Korea and neighboring countries that is seen essential for 'independent defense' and 'protection of sovereignty'.

Second, I believe the 'strategic burble (critical) point' has been set over North Korea's constant provocations. In order to prevent South Korea from being taken hostage by North Korean nuclear weapons, we should work with the US to hasten the establishment of a 'critical point' for the North Korean nuclear issue.

Third, North Korea and neighboring countries were informed of our policy shift from a 'defensive and political' response to an 'aggressive and military' response. From now, realistic military measures will be used instead of customary remarks and responses in the past.

Fourth, it means the start of strong pressure for dialogue through 'practical and military' action and manifests an important pattern change that there will be no more passive attitude or proposal for dialogue, but an aggressive initiative.

To summarize, it is of great significance that President Moon Jae-in has changed his policy toward North Korea. Unlike in the early days of his administration calling for a 'political proposal for dialogue', it is seeking 'demand for dialogue' or 'forced dialogue' through 'military pressure'. And this 'pressure for dialogue' strategy will also be applied to neighboring countries.


◆ It is important to set the 'strategic critical point' for survival

Dividing the stages of the 'strategic critical point' and its detailed contents should be kept secret strictly except for a very small number of people in the United States and South Korea. Moreover, South Korea should strictly manage and control its own 'strategic critical point'.

There has been an argument that it's more efficient to maintain ambiguity in connection with my proposal for the establishment of the critical point. However, I emphasize again that this 'critical point' (red line) requires a distinction between the 'Korea-US alliance' and the independent one along with phased setting.

First, it is important for North Korea and neighboring countries to know that South Korea and the US manage the 'strategic critical point' in secret. Secondly, this can be one of the important measures for enhancing the 'bargaining power' that I have emphasized since last year. The third and more important reason is that it's time to have 'courage' to take gradual steps and make all preparations in advance in order not to become a hostage of the North's nuclear program.

 
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